Deglobalization: The Fragmenting World Economy and the Impact on International Security

The book advances the argument that the emerging fourth industrial revolution is reversing globalization. Historically, periods of decline in global trade were driven bypolitical and security factors that increased the cost of doing business. With less profit, there was less reason to trade. But trade recovered when security improved and it was possible to make money again. Therefore, most current articles assume global trade flows will recover soon. In contrast, this book contends that while social, and political factors are contributing to the slowdown in international trade, the driving factor is profit. The convergence of new technologies is changing how and where we create wealth. Quite simply, business will make more money by producing and selling locally than internationally. As wealth creation becomes local or regional, so does security. This book states that this period of deglobalization will be long-term. How and where wealth was generated often drove conflict in the past. The major shiftin wealth generation driven by the fourth industrial revolution ""will have a profound impact on the nature of state relationships and international security."" A majordevelopment is the emergence of small, smart, and cheap but highly capable weapons systems. These systems will allow small states and even insurgent groups to impose very high costs on the United States if it choose to intervene in local conflicts. They will also make it possible for the United States to establish much more robust and sustainable deterrence against China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. But it will require we stop buying the very few and expensive weapons systems we are currently procuring and exploit the opportunities emerging with the fourth industrial revolution. It is essential for policymakers to be aware of the range of impacts this revolutionaryshift will bring about. They must investigate how it will impact U.S. security while there is time to make the necessary changes in our concepts, structures, and plans.